The race for MVP never truly starts in September. It starts now.
Our 2026 NFL MVP predictions look ahead to the quarterbacks and playmakers positioned to dominate next season. Team success, offensive production, and narrative momentum will shape the race — but talent always leads the conversation.
Here are the early favorites heading into the offseason.
Top Contenders in 2026 NFL MVP Predictions
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Allen remains the safest bet in most 2026 NFL MVP predictions. Since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator in 2023, Buffalo has averaged over 29 points per game.
Allen carries one of the league’s heaviest workloads. If the Bills add a true No. 1 receiver and finish near the top of the AFC, he will be firmly in the mix again.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
When healthy, Jackson always posts MVP-level numbers. A full offseason to reset physically gives him an advantage entering 2026.
With a new offensive voice expected to modernize the scheme, Jackson could pile up both passing efficiency and rushing production — a combination voters love.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes remains the most naturally gifted quarterback in football. Even in seasons that feel “down,” his numbers stay elite.
If he returns fully healthy from his knee injury and Kansas City regains offensive rhythm, he’s right back in the MVP conversation.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Prescott quietly delivered over 4,500 passing yards and 30 touchdowns last season. With George Pickens likely retained, the supporting cast remains strong.
If Dallas pairs offensive production with an improved defense and wins the NFC East, Prescott’s candidacy strengthens significantly.
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
Love continues to grow in Matt LaFleur’s system. Year four in the offense typically brings peak command and confidence.
If the Packers win double-digit games and Love elevates his touchdown efficiency, he becomes a serious MVP threat.
Dark Horse Candidates
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
Williams showed late-game poise and high-level arm talent. With Ben Johnson designing the offense, the statistical ceiling rises.
If Chicago exceeds expectations in a competitive NFC North, narrative momentum could swing his way.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
Daniels battled injuries but flashed elite dual-threat potential. A healthy season would allow him to showcase both rushing and passing growth.
Breakout seasons often win MVP awards — and Daniels fits that profile.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Running backs rarely win MVP anymore, but Robinson’s production is hard to ignore. A 2,000-plus total yard season would demand attention.
If Atlanta makes a playoff push, voters could reward the league’s most dynamic all-around back.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
McCaffrey remains the engine of the 49ers’ offense. His ability to impact the game as both a runner and receiver separates him.
If San Francisco wins 12 or more games again, he becomes a legitimate contender.
What History Tells Us About MVP Trends
Recent MVP trends heavily favor quarterbacks. Team record, efficiency metrics, and primetime performances play a major role.
That’s why most 2026 NFL MVP predictions lean toward Allen, Jackson, or Mahomes. They combine elite production with playoff expectations.
However, breakout narratives — especially from young quarterbacks — can shift the race quickly.
Final Outlook
The MVP race is always about three things:
- Team success
- Statistical dominance
- Late-season momentum
Right now, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson sit slightly ahead of the field. But one hot start in September can completely reshape this discussion.
As the offseason unfolds, free agency and draft additions will clarify which contenders are best positioned for an MVP campaign.
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